Título: | VALUATION OF MULTIPLE REAL OPTIONS IN MODULARIZED PROJECTS: A ROBUST METHODOLOGY FOR INVESTMENT ANALYSIS | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
JULIANO MELQUIADES VIANELLO |
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Colaborador(es): |
JOSE PAULO TEIXEIRA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 13/SET/2018 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=35080&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=35080&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.35080 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
In some cases it may be advantageous for the company to divide a project into several independent subunits. This can occur, for example, on large projects, in which are identified modules with different risks, returns, raw materials, products, activities and markets. On the other hand, in the assessment of projects, the consideration of real options to postpone investment, invest in information and stop production temporarily is a sophisticated approach compared with the traditional Net Present Value (NPV). Thus, the objective of this work is to present the economic risk factors of a project divided into several independent subunits identified as relevant in the analysis of the probability distribution of NPV; the stochastic process used to simulate each of these factors; the probability distribution of NPV using the
methodology of real options to postpone investment, invest in information and temporarily stop production, besides the isolated and multiple value of these options. By making use of these data, we can present a methodology for finding the optimal time combination for the investement in each of the subunits, the one in which the value of the NPV of this project is maximized. Another specific contribution of this work, refers to the generation of appropriate stochastic scenarios to model the uncertainty in the value of investment, one of the main risk factors in projects.
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