Título: | INTERVENTION MODELS TO FORECAST MONTHLY DEMAND OF ELETRIC ENERGY, CONSIDERING THE RATIONING SCENERY | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
EVANDRO LUIZ MENDES |
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Colaborador(es): |
REINALDO CASTRO SOUZA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 12/MAR/2003 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=3336&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=3336&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.3336 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
In this dissertation, a methodology is developed to
forecast monthly demand of electric energy, considering the
rationing scenery. The methodology is based on, taking the
growth rate from the time series, identify and eliminate the
effects of electric energy rationing, using Dynamic Linear
Models. It is also analyzed intervention structures in the
statistics models of Box & Jenkins and Holt & Winters.
The models are compared according to some criterions,
mainly forecast accuracy. At the end, we concluded that the
methodology proposed is more efficient, due to the
difficult to solve the problem using the statistics models
with intervention. This solution is proposed as the best
among them to create scenery during the energy rationing
and after energy rationing, to be used by the national
electric system agents.
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