ETDs @PUC-Rio
| Título: | THE VALUE OF THE SWITCH-USE OPTION OF THE LAND: FROM BEEF CATTLE FOR REFORESTATION OR SILVIPASTURE PROJECTS | ||||||||||||
| Autor: |
IGOR MICHEL SANTOS LEITE |
||||||||||||
| Colaborador(es): |
CARLOS PATRICIO SAMANEZ - Orientador |
||||||||||||
| Catalogação: | 26/ABR/2017 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
||||||||||
| Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
| Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
||||||||||||
| Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=29759&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=29759&idi=2 |
||||||||||||
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.29759 | ||||||||||||
| Resumo: | |||||||||||||
|
The valuation problem of switch-use option of the land is a recurring and
complex solution puzzle, given the wide range of uncertainties related to
agribusiness in Brazil. This dissertation analyzed and valued this option through the
approach of Real Options Theory (TOR), developing a long-term management
system, considering the installation of a reforestation project or silvipasture
management and initial stock of beef cattle. Solving the problem of where and how
to invest is resolved through Monte Carlo Simulation (SMC). The historical series
of timber prices (small and average diameters) and live cattle in the period between
1997 and 2015, are tested to observe their adherence to a stochastic model of mean
reversion (MRM). The results showed that the optimal decision to be taken is to
invest immediately in a silvipasture management, winning even the option to wait
and invest later. Through sensitivity analysis the safety limits was of the decision
are verified.
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||