Título: | VALUING REAL OPTIONS FOR NETWORK INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND COST-BASED ACCESS PRICING | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
SERGIO LUIS FRANKLIN JÚNIOR |
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Colaborador(es): |
NELIO DOMINGUES PIZZOLATO - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 20/FEV/2017 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=29198&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=29198&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.29198 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
With the goal of increasing competition in the telecommunications sector,
regulatory authorities around the world have adopted cost-based prices for
network interconnection and access services. The process of introducing
competition has not been easy and many issues have arisen in recent years related
to which facilities should be made available by the incumbent carriers, and on
what terms and conditions. One of these issues, not yet addressed by the
regulatory authorities, is the consideration of the value of the option to invest
when calculating cost-based prices of regulated services. The pricing formula
currently used by the regulators ignores the value of the option to productively
invest at some time in the future. This thesis proposes a model and methodology
for valuing the option to delay network investment decisions and calculating costbased
prices of regulated telecommunications services, taking into account the
demand and technological uncertainties in telecommunications networks. In a
typical cost study, the telecommunications network is represented by a list of
network elements specifically dimensioned to meet the forecast demand for all
telecommunications services, where each network element is an identifiable part
of the network infrastructure (e.g., the local loop), for which it can be assigned a
single cost driver. Different network elements are subject to different demand and
technological uncertainties. For example, switches and transmission equipment
are subject to faster technological substitution than local loop and transmission
facilities. In this thesis, I calculate the option value multiples for the decisions to
invest in three main network elements, each representing a different part of the
Brazilian fixed telecommunications network (subject to different technological
and demand uncertainties), and estimate the impact of these option value
multiples on the average unitary cost of each network element. This thesis
innovates in several aspects. First, because different network elements are subject
to different demand and technological uncertainties, a markup factor is calculated
for each main network element. Second, the value of the option to invest in each
network element is modeled as a function of two stochastic variables: the
element s total variable profit and the cost of new investment in the element.
Third, technological uncertainty is modeled using two complementary
approaches: technology obsolescence of used equipment and technology evolution
of new equipment. Fourth, the value of future replacement options is considered,
allowing for the resizing of network capacity as equipment elements are replaced.
The demand and technological uncertainties associated with each network element
are modeled through the use of three stochastic processes: the flow of total
variable profit (geometric Brownian motion), the depreciation of used asset
(Poisson decay process), and the cost of modern equivalent asset (geometric
Brownian motion). They all fit together into a neat and simple model that
calculates the option value multiple for each network element. A constant riskfree
interest rate has been assumed to derive the stochastic differential equations
that the real option values must satisfy, although interest rate uncertainty has been
investigated and interest rate volatilities have been calculated for different
maturities/terms. This thesis proposes a method for constructing the Brazilian
inflation coupon curve using a combination of traditional nonlinear optimization
algorithm and a genetic algorithm specifically developed for that purpose. There
has been a good deal of debate about which markup factor (if any) should be
applied to the investment cost component of a network investment decision in
order to reflect the value of the killed option. Some authors say the real option
value is negligible and should be ignored, as in Pelcovits (1999), while others
calculate markup values that are quite significant, as in Hausman (1999) and
Pindyck (2005). This thesis shows that the markup values can be negligible for
some network elements and quite significant for others. After applying the
markup factors, network costs should be assigned to services on the basis of how
much each service uses each network element. The impact of the option value
multiples on the cost-based prices of regulated telecommunications services will
depend on how much each service uses each network element. The proposed
model and methodology address a problem left unsolved over the past 14 years
and might become a landmark in regulatory cost modeling and cost-based access
pricing. Although I focus on telecommunications, model and methodology can be
adapted for application to other network industries as well.
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