Título: | VALUATION OF A FORESTRY INVESTMENT USING THE REAL OPTIONS THEORY | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
REBECA RAMOS DE OLIVEIRA FIGUEIREDO |
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Colaborador(es): |
FERNANDO LUIZ CYRINO OLIVEIRA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 13/DEZ/2016 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=28397&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=28397&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.28397 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
In order to incorporate uncertainty and managerial flexibilities in forestry investment projects, financial literature uses the real options approach. The aim of this work is to develop a model for valuation of a forestry project, in which the inventory growth of trees follows a logistic equation based in the estimated real growth of a forest. Thus, for a given level of saturation, the inventory stabilizes. In addition, this dissertation aims to quantify the economic benefits of an optimal production policy from cutting trees. For the proposal analysis, the results are obtained by the finite difference method in the explicit form. The problem has three independent variables – inventory, time and price, which is modeled as a Geometric Brownian Motion – and two dependent variables – the cutting rate and the value of the investment option. An application for an eucalyptus forest is presented and the results are compared considering other alternatives for the evolution of the inventory and for the decision on the cutting amount. For this purpose, two different assumptions are made, considering a stochastic model for the inventory and a fixed shear rate. The results show that it is advantageous to adopt a optimal cutting policy, confirming results obtained in previous studies of real options in forestry. Moreover, the greatest option value is obtained when the inventory is modeled by logistic equation for growth.
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