Título: | EVALUATING THERMAL PLANTS IN BRAZIL STUDIND THE BEST TIME TO INVEST USING REAL OPTIONS MODELS | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
LEONARDO LIMA GOMES |
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Colaborador(es): |
JOSE PAULO TEIXEIRA - Orientador ALBERT CORDEIRO GEBER DE MELO - Orientador TARA KESHAR NANDA BAIDYA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 25/JUL/2002 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=2772&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=2772&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.2772 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
Until 1997 The Brazilian Electric Sector was basically a
monopoly administrated by federal and state enterprises. In
the second semester of 1997 it was begun privatizations and
the restructuring process. Before Brazilian Electric Sector
restructuring process, the planning of generation
expansion was made through a centralized program which
focus in minimize the investment and operation costs. The
generation expansion was a decision variable of the
problem. However, one of the assumptions of the
restructuring sector process was and continues to be the
private agent realization of a big share of the new
investment in generation. So, the generation expansion is
not more centralized, becoming a variable, which depends of
the investment affordability of this agent. In this
context, the present thesis studies the private investment
dynamics in thermoelectric generation using Real Options.
The dynamic of investment in thermal Plants will be studied
in three different situations: In the first, it will be
used a model of real options / decision analysis to
determine the best timing of construction, considering that
exists an exogenous uncertainty in the thermal supply
expansion. In the second situation, the same model will be
used to define the best timing of investment in thermal
plants, considering that exists demand uncertainty, and
that the supply expansion remains constant. In the third
situation, the supply expansion occurs in response of the
demand uncertainty evolution and the strategic interactions
between the agents. It will be used a real options/
decision analysis/ game theory model. The main results
obtained were the threshold contracted prices and the
determination of the best time to invest as a function of
some problem variables. It was possible to compare the
different studied situations, showing that the competition
could delay investments.
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