Título: | INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP AS A PREDICTOR OF FUTURE SECURITY RETURNS | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
RAPHAEL ALEXANDER ROTTGEN |
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Colaborador(es): |
EDUARDO SANY LABER - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 29/FEV/2016 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=25862&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=25862&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.25862 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
Data on institutional ownership of securities is nowadays publicly
available in a number of jurisdictions and can thus be used in models for
the prediction of security returns. A number of recently launched
investment products explicitly use such institutional ownership data in
security selection. The purpose of the current study is to apply statistical
learning algorithms to institutional ownership data from the United States,
in order to evaluate the predictive validity of features based on such
institutional ownership data with regard to future security returns. Our
analysis identified that a support vector machine managed to classify
securities, with regard to their four-quarter forward returns, into three bins
with significantly higher accuracy than pure chance would predict. Even
higher accuracy was achieved when predicting realized, i.e. past, fourquarter
returns.
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