Título: | A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE FORECAST CAPABILITY OF VOLATILITY MODELS | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
LUIS ANTONIO GUIMARAES BENEGAS |
||||||||||||
Colaborador(es): |
TARA KESHAR NANDA BAIDYA - Orientador MONICA BARROS - Coorientador |
||||||||||||
Catalogação: | 15/JAN/2002 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
||||||||||
Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
||||||||||||
Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=2213&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=2213&idi=2 |
||||||||||||
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.2213 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
The risk concept is defined as the distribution of the
unexpected results from variations in the values of the
variables that describe the market. However, the variable
risk is not observable and its measurement depends on which
model is used in its evaluation. Thus, the application of
different models could result in significant different risk
forecasts.The goal of this study is to carry out a
comparison within the largest used models (sample
variance in the last k observations, exponentially
smoothing models and the Bollerslev s model GARCH(1,1)).
The study compares the models mentioned above regarding its
forecast capability of the volatility for portfolios of
selected brazilian stocks. The volatility forecasts will be
compared to the actual out of sample volatility. As long as
the actual volatility is not an observable variable, the
same procedure adopted by RiskMetrics in the calculation
of the optimum decay factor will be used: it assumes the
premise that the average return of which one of the stock
portfolios is equal zero and, as the consequence of this
fact, the one step variance forecast of the portfolio
return carried out on date t is equal to expected value of
the squared return of date t.The final objective is to
conclude, using backtesting techniques, which of the
forecasting volatility models show the best performance
regarding the comparison criterions vis-a-vis the
demanding computer efforts. By this way, it was aimed to
evaluate which of them offer the best cost-benefit relation
for the brazilian equity market.
|
|||||||||||||
|