Título: | EVOLUTION AND MODELLING OF THE BRAZILIAN TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES | |||||||
Autor: |
MARCELO CAMARAO GANEM |
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Colaborador(es): |
TARA KESHAR NANDA BAIDYA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 11/ABR/2012 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | |||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=19408&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=19408&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.19408 | |||||||
Resumo: | ||||||||
Modeling the term-structure movements of interest rates is a task that has
been attracting a crescent number of researchers and practitioners in quantitative
finance, given its importance as the main driver for the economic cost of capital.
The volume of traded interest rate sensitive assets and derivatives has grown
significantly over the last few years, followed by increasingly complex models of
pricing and analysis. The high dimensionality of the object of study requires the
use of mathematical tools quite different from standard stock market models,
resulting in several approaches that eventually lack a unified framework, flexible
enough to capture the dynamics of some particular markets. In Brazil the yield
curve analysis is even more complex, due to the fast increase of fixed income
products over the last ten years, and the historical shifts in the monetary policy
conduction. The risk premium in the Brazilian term-structure of interest rates is
partially driven by some specific defensive behavior, following past monetary
decisions. Until 2008, the Brazilian Central Bank has primarily dealt with
domestic and external crises by raising the short term rate to restrain capital
outflows, generating a well-known asymmetry in the market’s response functions
to risk aversion. Therefore, the traditional parameterization of risk based on mean
and variance estimators fails to capture the market price of risk assigned to higher
order moments of bond returns across several maturities. The main purpose of this
thesis was to get a broad picture of the singularities of the Brazilian term-structure
dynamics, and use it to propose alternative approaches to interest rate derivatives
pricing – particularly, embodying the third and fourth (pseudo) moments of bond
returns into the modeling cycle. The work is divided in two parts: the first
exploratory, applying multivariate statistics, portfolio theory and risk management
tools to trace the historical evolution of the Brazilian yield curve, and plot the
timeline of risk premia and prices of risk linked to exogenous and endogenous
factors. The second part of the research uses the statistical evidence gathered as
input to a semi-parametric model for pricing derivatives, based on elements of
Information Theory. The model was back-tested over an extensive database of
local interest rate options, and compared to the results of a traditional market
model (BGM). The thesis concludes that the dynamics of the Brazilian yield curve
is in part driven by its historical heritage, and endogenous risk factors including
moments of bond returns of third and fourth orders are relevant for the premia
structure and evolution. Bringing these elements into a modeling process might
partially bridge the gap between classical curve models and the local pricing
practice.
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