Título: | REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS OF STEEL SECTOR PROJECTS: THE BRAZILIAN CASE | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autor: |
LUIZ DE MAGALHAES OZORIO |
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Colaborador(es): |
TARA KESHAR NANDA BAIDYA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 27/JAN/2011 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=16811&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=16811&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.16811 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
This work analyzes the applicability of the real options method in the
valuation of investments in steel industry, and compares the outcomes with the
traditional methods of project evaluation. Being steel a commodity with high price
volatility and great changeability in its demand, the return of steel projects are
stochastic. The presence of these uncertainties, combined with the existing set of
managerial flexibilities in the steel productive processes, create an adequate
environment to emerge valuable real options that consequently may interfere
significantly with the project values and the decision making process in the steel
industry investments. Besides contemplating the recognition of the main existing
real options in the steel sector and prescribing methodologies to evaluate them, the
work analyzes stochastic methods that show the best fit to steel price performance,
considering the available empirical data existing in the market. As application of
the discussed methodologies in the course of the thesis the evaluation of two
diferent kinds of real options in the steel industry are presented - shut down
options in electrical furnace plants and switch of product in integrated plants -
using three different types of sthocastic processes: GBM, MRM and MRM with
Drift. The obtained results showed that the evaluated managerial flexibilities can
agregate significantily the created value in steel projects and it also may be
observed the relevance of the choice of stochastic process not only in the projects
value but in the options value as well.
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