Título: | CASH FLOW AT RISK ANALYSIS OF A DOWNSTREAM OIL COMPANY | |||||||
Autor: |
RICARDO PEREIRA NUNES |
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Colaborador(es): |
CARLOS PATRICIO SAMANEZ - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 11/SET/2009 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | |||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=14108&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=14108&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.14108 | |||||||
Resumo: | ||||||||
This study intents to examine strategies for hedging with swaps, futures and
options that reduce the impact in CF@R to a model of oil refinery. The purpose is
to show the effect that financial market hedge instruments used in portfolios
causes in the corporate environment. The basis for the case study is shaped by the
methodology for risk analysis on non-financial institutions suggested by the
technical document CorporatemetricsTM. In the corporate financial structure,
which concept is already solidified, it was added some variables to study the cash
flow distribution of the refinery. Stochastic processes are used, in this case the
MGB, to simulate the prices of the commodities identified as risk factors that
influence the financial results of the company. Afterwards, the Monte Carlo
simulation and the Cholesky decomposition are used to help generate correlated
projections and therefore develop possible future cash flows scenarios.
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