Título: | THE DETERMINANTS OF BRAZILIAN INTEREST RATES FOR LONG-TERM PUBLIC FIXED INCOME SECURITIES | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autor: |
ANDRE CABUS KLOTZLE |
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Colaborador(es): |
WALTER LEE NESS JUNIOR - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 01/DEZ/2008 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: |
THESIS
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Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12556&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12556&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.12556 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
This study aims to verify statistically, through the
utilization of an interest
rate covered parity model adjusted to the country-risk and
other risks (domestic,
mainly), what are the determinants of Brazilian interest
rates for long-term public
fixed income securities - in this case, the so-called
National Treasury Notes -
Series F (NTN-Fs) with maturity in approximately 10 years,
more precisely, in
2017. The dependent variable was defined as being the yield-
to-maturity of the
respective NTN-Fs, whereas the independent or explanatory
variables were the
risk-free rates of the US 10-year Treasuries, the Brazilian
country-risk and the
exchange rate risk. The other risks (especially domestic
ones), as well as they
reflect the differential between the NTN-Fs and the other
variables, are one of the
error term components. Given that the independent variables
have strong
multicollinearity - which brings biased results to the
determination and
individual coefficients -, we opted for using a VAR model
and, based on it,
obtain the endogenous degrees of each variable. Then, it
was possible to observe
the causality and importance level of the variables
individually and if the model
was correctly specified - that is, if the long-term NTN-Fs
interest rates were in
fact explained by the other variables. The main VAR model
tools - which are the
variance decomposition and the impulse-response functions -
allowed us to
make important conclusions about the delayed impacts of
variations or shocks
occurred in the independent variables over the analyzed NTN-
Fs interest rates.
The results proved that NTN-Fs interest rate is the most
endogenous variable of
the model and, therefore, the dependent one. The results
also showed that the
exchange rate risk is the less endogenous variable,
suggesting it has a decreasing
importance for the long-run interest rate building in
Brazil. However, the most
important conclusion was the evidence that there is a
negative correlation between
the risk-free rate and Brazilian long-run securities
interest rates, opposing, at least
in 2007, the Portfolio Theory, which foresees a positive
relationship between the
risk-free irate and the return of an asset.
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