Título: | EVALUATION OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT IN THE VALUE OF A GAS-TO-LIQUIDS FACILITY CAUSED BY A RESEARCH AND DEVELEOPMENT TECNOLOGICAL PROJECT: USING THE THE REAL OPTIONS THEORY | |||||||
Autor: |
CARLOS FREDERICO DAS SILVA CRESPO |
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Colaborador(es): |
JOSE PAULO TEIXEIRA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 06/OUT/2008 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | |||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12295&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12295&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.12295 | |||||||
Resumo: | ||||||||
When making decisions, the figure of the manager comes
across different
types of uncertainties. Among them, the time to conclude a
project. The
characteristics of innovation and novelty in Research and
Development Projects
applied to technology, further reinforces the caution to be
taken regarding the
time dimension at the moment of the decision, since the
penalty could culminate
in the loss of a valuable business opportunity. In order to
quantify the impact of
the effort applied in a Research and Technological
Development Project, in the
value of an entrepreneurship conducted according to a
context in which time is
represented by a random variable, this study presents a
pertinent model.
Considering that a project sequentially evolves and can be
abandoned during any
stage of its development, the Theory of Real Options was
the chosen theoretical
framework. The model utilizes a lattice to capture the
technical uncertainty,
characteristics of the development of technology
performance, and takes in
account as a random variable the time of the conclusion of
each stage of the
project. The expected value of the project with the
flexibility provided by the
option to abandonment built in the Research and Development
Project, is
calculated through a combination of the Monte Carlo
Simulation and the
technique of Dynamic Programming. The proposed model was
applied in the case
of a Gas-to-liquid (GTL) plant. The payoff function of the
Research and
Development Project was built through several contributions
stemmed from an
agreement between the Industrial Engineering Department of
PUC-RJ and
Petrobras S.A., in order to assess the economic value of a
GTL plant
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