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Estatística
Título: EVALUATION OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT IN THE VALUE OF A GAS-TO-LIQUIDS FACILITY CAUSED BY A RESEARCH AND DEVELEOPMENT TECNOLOGICAL PROJECT: USING THE THE REAL OPTIONS THEORY
Autor: CARLOS FREDERICO DAS SILVA CRESPO
Colaborador(es): JOSE PAULO TEIXEIRA - Orientador
Catalogação: 06/OUT/2008 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: THESIS
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12295&idi=1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12295&idi=2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.12295
Resumo:
When making decisions, the figure of the manager comes across different types of uncertainties. Among them, the time to conclude a project. The characteristics of innovation and novelty in Research and Development Projects applied to technology, further reinforces the caution to be taken regarding the time dimension at the moment of the decision, since the penalty could culminate in the loss of a valuable business opportunity. In order to quantify the impact of the effort applied in a Research and Technological Development Project, in the value of an entrepreneurship conducted according to a context in which time is represented by a random variable, this study presents a pertinent model. Considering that a project sequentially evolves and can be abandoned during any stage of its development, the Theory of Real Options was the chosen theoretical framework. The model utilizes a lattice to capture the technical uncertainty, characteristics of the development of technology performance, and takes in account as a random variable the time of the conclusion of each stage of the project. The expected value of the project with the flexibility provided by the option to abandonment built in the Research and Development Project, is calculated through a combination of the Monte Carlo Simulation and the technique of Dynamic Programming. The proposed model was applied in the case of a Gas-to-liquid (GTL) plant. The payoff function of the Research and Development Project was built through several contributions stemmed from an agreement between the Industrial Engineering Department of PUC-RJ and Petrobras S.A., in order to assess the economic value of a GTL plant
Descrição: Arquivo:   
COVER, ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS, RESUMO, ABSTRACT, SUMMARY AND LISTS PDF    
CHAPTER 1 PDF    
CHAPTER 2 PDF    
CHAPTER 3 PDF    
CHAPTER 5 PDF    
CHAPTER 5 PDF    
CHAPTER 6 PDF    
CHAPTER 7 PDF    
REFERENCES AND APPENDICES PDF