Título: | IDENTIFICATION OF BUYING AND SELLING MOMENTS OF STOCKS BASED ON CONTROL CHARTS | |||||||
Autor: |
ROBERTA MONTELLO AMARAL |
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Colaborador(es): |
EUGENIO KAHN EPPRECHT - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 12/JUN/2008 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | |||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=11765&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=11765&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.11765 | |||||||
Resumo: | ||||||||
The objective of this thesis is to propose the use of a new
tool for
decision-making associated with the moment to buy or sell
titles negotiated in
stock exchanges. The proposed tool consists of applying a
time series model to
daily returns' logarithms and building a control chart with
the model's residues
(or forecasting errors), deciding to buy when the
forecasting error is smaller
than a lower limit (LL) and to sell when the forecasting
error is greater than an
upper limit (UL). A number of values for the above-
mentioned limits (fractions of
traditional values of limits for Shewhart and EWMA charts)
were experimentally
tested as a way to determine those which better meet the
risk and return needs
of investors with different degrees of risk aversion. The
present work is an
extension to the undergraduate degree thesis Control Chart
Theory Applied to
Decison-making in the Brazilian Stock Market (AMARAL, 2000)
and the
Master's dissertation Identification of Buying and Selling
Moments of Stocks in
Cash: an Alternative Procedure Inspired by Process Control
Charts (AMARAL,
2004). The construction of charts for the residuals of time
series models of
Bovespa stocks' historical data yielded a tool which, in
some aspects, was able
to indicate moments for investment in stocks with better
results than those
obtained through certain stock funds. The indication of
some adequate LL and
UL to different types of investors (presented in chapter 7)
was a concrete result
which met the proposed objective. Complementary studies
were made on the
influence of seasonal effects, the result of the tool when
applied to portfolios,
the effect of the sample size, the degree of randomness of
the results found and
the behaviour of some stop-loss mechanisms. Great
improvements have been
made. However, given the degree of innovation of the work,
it is recommended
that advancements be made in certain aspects before
including the tool
amongst the techniques used by investors interested in
variable income funds.
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