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Estatística
Título: APPLYING DIEBOLD AND LI METHODOLOGY TO BRAZILIAN INTEREST RATE TERM STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
Autor: PRISCILA KELLY CARVALHO SABINO
Colaborador(es): LUCIANO VEREDA OLIVEIRA - Orientador
Catalogação: 06/NOV/2007 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: THESIS
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=10800&idi=1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=10800&idi=2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.10800
Resumo:
The main objective of this dissertation is to model the Brazilian interest yield curve using Diebold and Li (2006) framework, in order to produce short, medium and long-term forecasts. We estimate the model and then compare its term-structure forecasts with forecasts based on standard benchmark models. Our results lead to the conclusion that the model proposed by Diebold and Li is not consistent with The Brazilian specific evidence, since it is outperformed by simple univariate models, for all forecast horizons, with any maturity choice. We make some theoretical conjectures to explain why the attempt has failed, which inspired the development of two new variants of the original model. The new results indicate that the model improvements proposed are promising, because one of the variants succeeds in producing long-term forecasts of greater accuracy than those based on competing models.
Descrição: Arquivo:   
COVER, ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS, RESUMO, ABSTRACT, SUMMARY AND LISTS PDF    
CHAPTER 1 PDF    
CHAPTER 2 PDF    
CHAPTER 3 PDF    
CHAPTER 4 PDF    
CHAPTER 5 PDF    
CHAPTER 6 PDF    
CHAPTER 7 PDF    
REFERENCES PDF