Título: | BRAZILIAN STOCK RETURN SERIES: VOLATILITY AND VALUE AT RISK | ||||||||||||||||
Autor: |
PAULO HENRIQUE SOTO COSTA |
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Colaborador(es): |
TARA KESHAR NANDA BAIDYA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 20/JUL/2001 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=1743&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=1743&idi=2 [es] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=1743&idi=4 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.1743 | ||||||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||||||
This thesis aims to study the results of applying different
models to estimate Brazilian stock volatilities. The models
are applied to six series of daily returns, and each series
has 1200 days. We studied first the series` main
statistical features: Stationarity, unconditional
distribution and independence. We concluded that the series
are mean stationary, but there was no conclusion on
variance stationarity, in this first analysis. Return
distribution is not normal, because of the high kurtosis.
Returns showed time dependence, linear and, mainly, not
linear. We modeled the linear dependence, and then applied
ten different volatility models, in order to try to capture
the non linear dependence. We evaluated the different
models, in sample and out of sample, by analyzing their
residuals and their forecast errors. The results showed
that the less sophisticated models tend to give a worst
representation of the data generating process; they also
showed that the less parsimonious models are difficult to
estimate, and their results are not as good as we could
expect from their sophistication. We used the ten models`
volatility forecasts to estimate value-at-risk (VaR) and two
methods to estimate the residual distribution quantiles:
empirical distribution and extreme value theory. The
results showed that the less sophisticated models give
better VaR estimates. This is a consequence of the variance
non stationarity, that became apparent along the thesis.
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