Título: | LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN LATIN AMERICA: A DATA SCIENCE STANDPOINT | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
JESSICA VILLAR DE ASSUMPCAO |
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Colaborador(es): |
PAULA MEDINA MACAIRA LOURO - Orientador FERNANDA ARAUJO BAIAO AMORIM - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 21/OUT/2024 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=68393&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=68393&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.68393 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
In the 21st century alone, the world has faced the devastating impacts of
three acute respiratory diseases: Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS),
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and COVID-19, which evolved
into a pandemic. These diseases have not only caused a large number of
deaths but have also damaged the economies of the affected regions. In
particular, countries in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region
have faced additional challenges due to greater social inequalities, limited
access to health services, and precarious living conditions. Therefore, it is
imperative to understand the effects of mitigation actions to guide actions
to mitigate the health and socioeconomic impacts if (or when) new acute
respiratory diseases emerge, especially in these countries. A retrospective study
was conducted to model the dynamics of variation in COVID-19 mortality
in LAC countries and analyze its association with vaccination strategies,
containment measures, mobility restrictions, and socioeconomic factors. The
study methodology applied clustering techniques that revealed two distinct
clusters based on sociodemographic characteristics, followed by the application
of XGBoost to model the dynamics of variation in deaths in the countries of
each cluster, over time. Finally, the SHAP Values technique was applied to
understand the associations between mortality and factors such as vaccination,
containment measures and mobility restrictions. In addition, a panel of experts
was held to assess the relevance and effectiveness of the results found. The
study provides evidence that economic support and the completion of the
vaccination scheme were especially relevant in reducing COVID-19 mortality.
It was possible to detect two distinct groups of countries, where one group
may have characteristics of greater vulnerability than the other group. The
most important interventions for understanding COVID-19 mortality varied
in two distinct periods of the pandemic: pre-vaccination and post-vaccination.
In the pre-vaccination period, containment measures were the most important
interventions for mortality in the least vulnerable countries, while for the most
vulnerable countries, they were variations in population mobility. In the post-vaccination period, vaccination coverage was the most important intervention
for mortality in the least vulnerable countries, while the most vulnerable
countries were more impacted by containment measures.
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