Título: | A DATA SCIENCE APPROACH TO ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF COGNITIVE RISK-SEEKING BIAS ON INDIVIDUAL DECISION-MAKING INVOLVING FINANCIAL LOSSES | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
LEONARDO FREITAS SAYAO |
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Colaborador(es): |
FERNANDA ARAUJO BAIAO AMORIM - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 12/AGO/2024 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=67533&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=67533&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.67533 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
The study of decision-making has gained more and more importance, from
the classical conceptions of the economic man to the more recent concepts of
bounded rationality and cognitive biases. Over time, the increasing complexity of
decisions has driven the development of technologies such as Decision Support
Systems and Predictive Models, highlighting more recently the incorporation of
techniques from the field of Artificial Intelligence, and more precisely Machine
Learning, to improve the accuracy and efficiency of decision-making. However, as
great as the benefits provided by advances in computer support have been, humans
are ultimately the ones to make decisions. And, being an essentially human task,
the influence of cognitive biases on decision-making is a relevant and
underexplored challenge. These biases can be due to various factors, including
individual preferences, external influences, and unconscious cognitive derivations.
Despite the efforts of the field of Behavioral Economics to identify and model these
biases, their impact in contexts of monetary decisions is still limited. Therefore, this
work proposes an architecture based on ontological foundations to identify and
analyze cognitive biases in scenarios of high risk of monetary losses. Through the
application of Data Science and Machine Learning techniques, we propose a
methodology - implemented in a computational artifact - capable of automatically
identifying patterns of cognitive biases from a history of decision records,
generating knowledge about the risk preferences of decision makers and their gains
and losses caused by their choices. The specific bias explored in this study is Risk
Seeking in the loss domain, as defined in the Kahneman Quadruple Pattern. The
evaluation of the effectiveness of this proposal will be carried out through a case
study using a benchmark available in the literature, providing insights into the
applicability and practical benefits of the proposed architecture.
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