Título: | RISK-CONSTRAINED OPTIMAL DYNAMIC TRADING STRATEGIES UNDER SHORT- AND LONG-TERM UNCERTAINTIES | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
ANA SOFIA VIOTTI DAKER ARANHA |
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Colaborador(es): |
ALEXANDRE STREET DE AGUIAR - Orientador SERGIO GRANVILLE - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 23/NOV/2021 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=56114&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=56114&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.56114 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
Recent market changes in power systems with high renewable energy penetration
highlighted the need for complex profit maximization and protection
against price volatility and generation uncertainty. This work proposes a dynamic
model to represent sequential decision making in this current scenario.
Unlike previously reported works, we contemplate uncertainties in both strategic
(long-term) and operational (short-term) levels, all considered as pathdependent
stochastic processes. The problem is represented as a multistage
stochastic programming model in which the correlations between inflow forecasts,
renewable generation, spot and contract prices are accounted for by
means of interconnected long- and short-term decision trees. Additionally, risk
aversion is considered through intuitive time-consistent constraints. A case
study of the Brazilian power sector is presented, in which real data was used
to define the optimal trading strategy of a wind power generator, conditioned
to the future evolution of market prices. The model provides the trader with
useful information such as the optimal contractual amount, settlement timing,
and term. Furthermore, the value of this solution is demonstrated when compared
to state-of-the-art static approaches using a multistage-based certainty
equivalent performance measure.
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