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ETDs @PUC-Rio
Estatística
Título: PORTFOLIO IN OIL EXPLORATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY: CONDITIONS FOR WAR OF ATTRITION AND COOPERATIVE BARGAINING
Autor: LUCAS MESZ
Colaborador(es): LUIZ EDUARDO TEIXEIRA BRANDAO - Orientador
MARCO ANTONIO GUIMARAES DIAS - Coorientador
Catalogação: 21/JUN/2021 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: THESIS
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=53356&idi=1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=53356&idi=2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.53356
Resumo:
This research models the sequential exploratory strategy of oil and gas prospects at different levels of uncertainty. To do so, it considers portfolio consolidation by the concept of information disclosure and the advantages of using Information Value theory for the optimal drilling sequence. The price uncertainty of the spot price of a barrel of oil is modeled as a Geometric Brownian Motion. Given the length of the oil exploration concession contract, the option values of investing in the assets and exploration portfolio are analyzed. In addition to these uncertainties, the model considers the competitive effect of another company in a game known as the War of Attrition, examined using several case studies. This game occurs when assets are correlated, and companies wait as free-riders for information of hydrocarbon occurrence from the drilling of the asset by the neighboring operator. The results point out that the firm should analyze its exploratory opportunities under the real options approach, and improves with exploratory portfolio analysis, which combines the value of waiting with the value of information. The impact of strategic interactions is relevant, especially when the two firms portfolios have similar exploratory triggers. In asymmetric games, the ratio between the exploratory triggers and the simultaneous drilling triggers defines the degeneration to drilling action of one of the operators. This effect can also be analyzed when comparing the benefit of waiting for information from the conflicting companies. If there is perpetuation in the war of attrition, agents can change to a cooperative bargaining game. In this case, there should be an information exchange between the trading firms, with private information being more relevant than public information. In the case of a marginal improvement in the learning measure, the change to cooperative bargaining already becomes advantageous for both players.
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