Título: | PORTFOLIO IN OIL EXPLORATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY: CONDITIONS FOR WAR OF ATTRITION AND COOPERATIVE BARGAINING | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
LUCAS MESZ |
||||||||||||
Colaborador(es): |
LUIZ EDUARDO TEIXEIRA BRANDAO - Orientador MARCO ANTONIO GUIMARAES DIAS - Coorientador |
||||||||||||
Catalogação: | 21/JUN/2021 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
||||||||||
Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
||||||||||||
Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=53356&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=53356&idi=2 |
||||||||||||
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.53356 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
This research models the sequential exploratory strategy of oil and
gas prospects at different levels of uncertainty. To do so, it considers
portfolio consolidation by the concept of information disclosure and the
advantages of using Information Value theory for the optimal drilling
sequence. The price uncertainty of the spot price of a barrel of oil is
modeled as a Geometric Brownian Motion. Given the length of the oil
exploration concession contract, the option values of investing in the assets
and exploration portfolio are analyzed. In addition to these uncertainties,
the model considers the competitive effect of another company in a game
known as the War of Attrition, examined using several case studies. This
game occurs when assets are correlated, and companies wait as free-riders
for information of hydrocarbon occurrence from the drilling of the asset by
the neighboring operator.
The results point out that the firm should analyze its exploratory opportunities
under the real options approach, and improves with exploratory
portfolio analysis, which combines the value of waiting with the value of information.
The impact of strategic interactions is relevant, especially when
the two firms portfolios have similar exploratory triggers. In asymmetric
games, the ratio between the exploratory triggers and the simultaneous
drilling triggers defines the degeneration to drilling action of one of the
operators. This effect can also be analyzed when comparing the benefit of
waiting for information from the conflicting companies. If there is perpetuation
in the war of attrition, agents can change to a cooperative bargaining
game. In this case, there should be an information exchange between the
trading firms, with private information being more relevant than public
information. In the case of a marginal improvement in the learning measure,
the change to cooperative bargaining already becomes advantageous
for both players.
|
|||||||||||||
|