Título: | A NOVEL SEMIPARAMETRIC STRUCTURAL MODEL FOR ELECTRICITY FORWARD CURVES | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
MARINA DIETZE MONTEIRO |
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Colaborador(es): |
ALEXANDRE STREET DE AGUIAR - Orientador DAVI MICHEL VALLADAO - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 23/FEV/2021 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=51534&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=51534&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.51534 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
Hedging against spot price volatilities becomes increasingly important in
deregulated power markets. Therefore, being able to model electricity forward
prices is crucial in a competitive environment. Electricity differs from other
commodities due to its limited storability and transportability. Furthermore,
its derivatives are associated with a delivery period during which electricity is
continuously delivered, implying on referring to power forwards as swaps. These
peculiarities make the modeling of electricity contract prices a non-trivial
task, where traditional models must be adapted to address the mentioned
characteristics. In this context, we propose a novel semiparametric structural
model to compute a continuous daily forward curve of electricity through
maximum smoothness criterion. In addition, elementary forward contracts
can be represented by any parametric structure for seasonality or even for
exogenous variables. Our framework acknowledges the overlapped swaps and
allows an analysis of arbitrage opportunities observed in power markets. The
smooth forward curve is computed by a hierarchical optimization problem able
to handle scarce data sets from low-liquidity markets. PCA results corroborate
our framework s capability to explain a high percentage of variance with only
a few factors.
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