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ETDs @PUC-Rio
Estatística
Título: DATA-DRIVEN ROBUST OPTIMIZATION MODEL APPLIED FOR FIXED INCOME ALLOCATION
Autor: JESSICA ALVES
Colaborador(es): DAVI MICHEL VALLADAO - Orientador
Catalogação: 14/JUL/2020 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: THESIS
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=48987&idi=1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=48987&idi=2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.48987
Resumo:
This paper proposes a data-driven worst case robust optimization model applied in the selection of a portfolio of fixed income securities. The portfolio management implies in financial decision-making and risk management through the selection of optimal assets based on expected returns. As these are uncertain random variables, was included a defined set of estimated uncertainties directly in the optimization process, called scenarios. The Nelson and Siegel curve fitting model was used to construct the term structure of the interest rates employed in the pricing of securities, a risk-free asset and some risky assets of different maturities. The fixed-rate securities are marked to market because they are being traded before the maturity date. The implementation took place through computational simulation using market data and estimated data that fed the model. With robust optimization modeling were done different tests such as: analyze the sensitivity of the model to the variations of the parameters checking the results and the use of a rolling horizon scheme to simulate behavior over time. Once the optimal portfolio composition was obtained, the backtesting was done to evaluate the behavior of the allocations with the real return and also the comparison with the performance of a benchmark. The results of the tests showed the adequacy of the interest curve model and good allocation results of the robust portfolio, which presented reliability even in times of crisis.
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