Título: | EVALUATION OF THE PVARM DYNAMIC MODEL FOR STREAMFLOW SCENARIO GENERATION IN MEDIUM-TERM ENERGY PLANNING CONTEXT | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
YASMIN MONTEIRO CYRILLO |
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Colaborador(es): |
REINALDO CASTRO SOUZA - Orientador FERNANDO LUIZ CYRINO OLIVEIRA - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 29/AGO/2018 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=34942&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=34942&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.34942 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
The Medium-Term Energy Planning of the National Interconnected System (SIN) is a decision-making problem under uncertainty, coupled in space and time. The official solution uses the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) algorithm, where uncertainty is represented as a Periodic Autoregressive (PAR) process. Specifically for the Planning application, the possibility of PAR simulates negative streamflow values is a limitation of the model. The approach used in PAR to solve this question creates a link between the current residual and the past streamflow in spite of the stochastic component stage-wise independency assumption of SDDP algorithm. In this context, the Periodic Vector Autoregressive model with multiplicative error (PVARm) becomes interesting for streamflow formulation, since it guarantees the PDDE assumptions, it can simulate only positive streamflow values, besides incorporating the spatial inflows correlation. This work presents the PVARm model applied to the simulation of scenarios to attend the optimization process, based on data from the SIN. The estimation of the model is considered as the topology change of the last decades for the planning and selection of two classification criteria - unit and alternative fixed order from the smallest sum of model errors of fit. The scenarios generated are compared to the scenarios generated by the model that represent the current one, the PAR. The comparison is based on the results of the monthly and annual statistics measurement and the adequacy of the models, as measured by sequence tests. The results were that the PVAR is of a type of test that was not implemented in most of the tests and motivated the continuity of the studies for the application in the Planning of the Energy Operation of the SIN.
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