Título: | ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF TIME SERIES USING MULTIPLE SEASONAL EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND SIMULATION TECHNIQUES IN THE WIND ENERGY PRODUCTION | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
MATHEUS FERREIRA DE BARROS |
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Colaborador(es): |
REINALDO CASTRO SOUZA - Orientador FERNANDO LUIZ CYRINO OLIVEIRA - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 17/MAI/2016 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=26412&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=26412&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.26412 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
This work is in the context of wind energy, which is the energy source that
grows more in the Brazilian energy matrix, according to the Energy Research
Company (EPE), with projections that this growth will continue. Thus, the main
motivation of this work is the fact that developing and implementing
increasingly precise forecasting methods for the key variables in the production
of wind energy in a wind turbine, such as wind speed, is of crucial importance
for planning of the national electric system operation. Therefore, the main
objective of this work is to adapt and apply a time series forecasting
methodology in a database formed by wind speed measurements. The
methodology is built from the exploratory analysis of data, which can be
observed important features such as stationary mean and a complex seasonal
structure, which involves a daily cycle and monthly seasonality. Thus, it was
adapted an exponential smoothing model that incorporates multiple cycles,
Monte Carlo simulation and decomposition of the series through the TBATS
method, to make forecasts. As results and conclusions, it is possible to observe
that model adapted was adequate to address the proposed issue, compared with
the forecast models established in the literature, resulting in an increase in the
accuracy of forecasts made.
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