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ETDs @PUC-Rio
Estatística
Título: OIL RESERVES FORECASTING METHODOLOGY: IMPROVEMENTS PROPOSES TO KNORING AND BARCELOS
Autor: JORGE LUIZ CORREA MONTECHIARI
Colaborador(es): SILVIO HAMACHER - Orientador
Catalogação: 25/NOV/2013 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: THESIS
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=22311&idi=1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=22311&idi=2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.22311
Resumo:
Reserves are the main assets responsible for valuation of oil companies in the world market. However, to set any volume of hydrocarbon as reserves, it is necessary to develop a business plan to exploit and commercialize all oil and gas available. Therefore, the prior knowledge of the volume of hydrocarbons becomes strategic to anticipate the development and facilitate the acquisition of investments. The goal of this dissertation is to propose a methodology for reserves forecasting through improvements in the methods proposed by Knoring et al. (1999) and Barcelos (2006). The first improvement is related to optimize the fit of the proposed models for recoverable volume time series via an iterative method to provide initial solutions to the nonlinear least squares estimation method. The second improvement occurs in the process of choosing the best model avoiding the whole process needs to be revised after inserting new data to historical series each year. To analyze the effectiveness of the proposed work, the method is applied to seven recoverable volume time series and compared with the current methodology of reserves forecasting used by the company sponsoring the study.
Descrição: Arquivo:   
COVER, ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS, RESUMO, ABSTRACT, SUMMARY AND LISTS PDF    
CHAPTER 1 PDF    
CHAPTER 2 PDF    
CHAPTER 3 PDF    
CHAPTER 4 PDF    
CHAPTER 5 PDF    
CHAPTER 6 PDF    
CHAPTER 7 PDF    
REFERENCES AND APPENDICES PDF