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Título: NEURAL-GENETIC HYBRID SYSTEM TO PORTFOLIO BUILDING AND MANAGEMENT
Autor: JUAN GUILLERMO LAZO LAZO
Instituição: PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO - PUC-RIO
Colaborador(es):  MARLEY MARIA BERNARDES REBUZZI VELLASCO - ADVISOR
MARCO AURELIO CAVALCANTI PACHECO - ADVISOR

Nº do Conteudo: 7541
Catalogação:  28/11/2005 Idioma(s):  PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo:  TEXT Subtipo:  THESIS
Natureza:  SCHOLARLY PUBLICATION
Nota:  Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
Referência [pt]:  https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/colecao.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=7541@1
Referência [en]:  https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/colecao.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=7541@2
Referência DOI:  https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.7541

Resumo:
This dissertation presents the development of a hybrid system, based in Algorithms Genetics (AG) and Neural Networks (RN), for the selection of stocks, for the determination of the percentage to invest in each asset called weight of the stocks on the portfolio and investmet portfolio management. The objective multiples (return and risk) where desired to choose a set of actions of compaines with profit perspectives to form the investment portfolio. This choice difficult must to the great number of possiblities and parameters be considered, as: return, risk, correlation volatility, among others; reason by which it is considered as problem NP-Complete. The research work was developed in 5 main stages: a study on the investment portfolio area; a study on the models that use techniques of computacinal intelligence in this area; the dffinition of a hybrid model Genetic-Neural for the selection and manages of portfolio for the variant case in the time; and the study of cases. The study of the investment portfolio area it involved all the necessary theory for the construction and investment portfolio management. The study the techniques of computacional intelligence it defines the main concepts of Genetic Algorithms and Neural Networks used in this dissertation. The hybrid modeling Genetic-Neural for the classic or stationary case, consisted basically in the use of a Genetic Algorithm to select the stocks of the portfolio from a subgroup of assets negotiated in the Stock exchange of São Paulo - Brazil (BOVESPA). A Neural Network assists in the management of the portfolio, making forecasts of the returns of the assets for the next period to evaluation of the portfolio. In the asset seletion, two genetic algorithm are shaped: the first selects 12 amongst 137 assets negotiated in the São Paulo Stock Exchange, that present greater return expectation, with lesser risk and that they present low correlation with the others assets; and the second selects the assets using the model of Markowitz and the Criterion of Efficient Frontier. The forecast of returns of the stocks is a strategy that it aims at to improve the investment portfolio performance, typically, they consider only the average return of the asset. Diferent models of neural networks had been tested as: Neural Back Propagation, Networks Bayesianas, Hierarchic Neuro-Fuzzy System and Neural Networks with Filters of Kalman. The best ones resulted of forecast had been gotten with the neural network the weekly returns, as Filters of Kalman. For the stationary case they had been used as entred of the neural network the weekly returns, as much of the asset as of the index of the market, using itself the method of sliding window to make the forecast a step the front. The hybrid modeling Genetic-Neural for the variant case in the time, consisted of the use of 3 models: a AG to make the choice of the assets of the portfolio; model GARCH to make the forecasts of the volatility of the assets and the calculation of the risk of each asset is given by the VAR (measured of risk that tries to quantify the maximum loss that portfolio (or asset) can have in a horizon of time and with a confidence interval); e a RN to make the forecasts of the returns of the assets for the next period to evaluation of the portfolio. In the construction of the portfolio, the Criterion of Efficient Frontier for the selection of the assets was used, also amongst the 137 negotiated in the São Paulo Stock Exchange. The forecast of the volatility of the assets is a form to indicate how much it can vary the price of the assets, measured useful to determine the risk of an asset represented for the VAR. For this case job model GARCH to make this forecast. For the forecast of the returns os the assets they had been used as inputs of the Neural Networks Back Propagation the 10 last weekly returns of the assets and the volatily of the asset, using itself also the method of sliding win

Descrição Arquivo
COVER, ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS, RESUMO, ABSTRACT, SUMMARY AND LISTS  PDF
CHAPTER 1  PDF
CHAPTER 2  PDF
CHAPTER 3  PDF
CHAPTER 4  PDF
CHAPTER 5  PDF
CHAPTER 6  PDF
REFERENCES AND APPENDICES  PDF
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