The need of simulating a competitive market environment in order to encourage efficiency gains made the National Electrical Energy Agency (ANEEL) fixes targets for manageable indicators, including the level of non-technical losses (NTL s) of electricity distributors. The financial damage caused by losses not techniques reach the order of eight billion reais per year and directly impacts on the electricity tariffs. In this context, ANEEL inspired by the practice of regulation by incentives, established an econometric model that relates the acceptable level non-technical losses to the social complexity in concession areas of each Brazilian distributor. However, entities in the sector find gaps in the model and improvement in the results and robustness of the model should be done, this brings idea of proposing a different approach to the estimation. It is important to emphasize that in addition to forecasting, there is the willing of testing new variables potentially relevant in this analysis, based on recent literature on the subject. This study proves that the variable of interest, nontechnical losses, does not follow the Gaussian distribution, thus, we sought the true distribution of data and modeling took place in the frameworks of general linear approach. The results confirm adherence to a distribution that belongs to the exponential family (condition for applying the generalized linear approach model), in addition, the proposed model obtained good estimates, including the use of new important variables to explain the non-technical losses not used in other studies. The proposed model can be seen as possible alternative to the model used by ANEEL, so, its discussion is really important to the next review cycle of electricity rates.