This work aimed to develop a methodology and apply it to a iron ore railway transport chain in order to measure the impact of transoceanic iron ore price fluctuation in logistics projects involving production, loading and unloading terminals, transport rail and port infrastructure trying to demonstrate the relevance of the market price predictability in the planning of investments and the viability of projects in each step of the supply chain process concerning the exportation of this mineral commodity. To achieve the goal of the research presented above, there was a brief conceptual overview of the main methods of forecasting commodity prices and a description of the logistics processes in each stage of the chain under study. Next, the details of the methodology and its application were presented using a historical basis of real market prices and benchmark supply chain costs. The survey results identified the best moments of risk of mining projects and improve the decision making process of investment in railway assets. The new methodology allowed to increase the assessed level of prediction accuracy of the price per ton of iron ore and thereby improve the level of information that stimulates demand chain logistics projects involved. It was possible to identify the potential of the projects presented by mining companies and new players in their area, improving the selection of projects and shared decision making about which investments to prioritize in medium and long term.